Netmarble 预计 Q3 盈利下滑，押注 Q4 三款新游与中长期改革

Amid forecasts that Netmarble's third-quarter earnings will disappoint, its fourth-quarter launches and medium- to long-term overhaul are key factors to watch.

Industry sources say revenue growth and profitability are expected to cool in Q3 as sales from existing titles—which led a first-half rebound—settle at lower levels while macroeconomic headwinds persist.

Stronger Won, Lack of New Titles to Weigh on Q3

Brokerage estimates put Netmarble's consolidated Q3 revenue between 639 billion won and 683 billion won, with operating profit projected at 71 billion to 78.6 billion won. This falls short of the 94.7 billion won operating profit consensus and marks a decline from a year earlier.

The absence of major new releases and a natural decline in sales from existing hits are cited as the main reasons for the weak Q3 results. Key titles that propelled Q2 earnings with large-scale updates and in-game events have shifted in Q3 to operations centered on player-friendly updates, and their sales have settled at lower levels.

Netmarble’s results are also expected to take a direct hit from an external factor: the decline in the won-dollar exchange rate. The company is highly exposed to global markets, with overseas sales, including North America and Europe, accounting for nearly 80% of total revenue.

With the U.S. dollar down about 13% against the won from the previous quarter, overseas sales translate into fewer won. Currency effects alone could cut revenue by more than 30 billion won.

To be sure, SOL: enchant, an MMORPG Netmarble publishes rather than develops, hit No. 1 on Google Play's grossing chart after its June launch. Its sales will be fully reflected in the quarter. However, because published games yield lower profit margins than in-house IP titles, higher commission and other fees are expected to weigh on operating profit.

Three Q4 Launches Anchor Push for Long-Term Profitability

Despite the near-term slowdown, Netmarble is hoping to rebound through three Q4 game launches and enhanced live-service operations.

Major titles originally slated for the second half have been pushed back to Q4. These include Solo Leveling: KARMA, Shangri-La Frontier: The Seven Colossi, and Project Aegis, an idle RPG based on a well-known global franchise that is being developed by Netmarble's North American subsidiary Kabam.

At Tokyo Game Show 2026 in September, Netmarble ran demo booths for Solo Leveling: KARMA and Shangri-La Frontier: The Seven Colossi, drawing positive responses from Japanese attendees. The company has since begun preparing for launch, including pre-registration.

Alongside new launches, Netmarble is pursuing a fundamental corporate overhaul. Moving away from its past strategy of rapid-fire releases, it is applying stricter launch criteria and focusing on extending the product life cycle of existing live games.

The goal is to apply operational know-how from The Seven Deadly Sins: Grand Cross across its portfolio to secure long-term profitability. The title has stayed popular for more than seven years and still brings in about 100 billion won a year. Netmarble is using AI for game balancing and player-behavior analysis to streamline development and operations.

Netmarble is building out a multi-platform strategy spanning PC and consoles to reduce reliance on mobile. The move is seen as an effort to unlock new revenue streams by strengthening its footprint in Western markets.

Netmarble secured a publishing license for foreign games from China's National Press and Publication Administration in August for its flagship title Solo Leveling: ARISE, positioning it to tap China, the world's largest game market, for additional growth.

Reduced management uncertainty and stronger shareholder-return policies are drawing market attention. Chairman Bang Jun-hyuk recently acquired a large block of shares held by Tencent affiliates, removing a share overhang that had weighed on the stock.

Netmarble previously unveiled a three-year plan (2026–2028) allocating up to 40% of net income attributable to owners of the parent toward cash dividends, share buybacks and cancellations.

If the Q4 releases deliver and the global app store commission cuts expected to take full effect from next year kick in, Netmarble’s corporate value and earnings are projected to rise gradually over the long term.

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