Alinea Analytics估算《战争机器：E-Day》售出230k份（168k Steam、62k Xbox），722k Game Pass用户购买$30升级，总收入$37m

Per their substack:

Gears of War: E-Day has sold 230K copies since its advance-access launch on October 1 and full release on October 6. Steam accounts for 168K of those, with Xbox (console and PC) selling 62K. But there's more to this story, as Xbox makes up the bulk of revenue.

On Xbox, Game Pass is cannibalising much of the premium revenue. Our estimates show that 1.7M folks accessed E-Day via their subscription rather than a copy. But Xbox is having it both ways – or having it halfway, at least – via its Premium Edition Game Pass upgrade.
Game Pass subscribers could pay $30 (or their local equivalent) for up to five days of early access starting October 1. Our estimates show that of the 1.7M who accessed E-Day through Game Pass, 722K paid for the upgrade. Between the review embargo lifting on October 1 and the full release, E-Day managed to shift another 250K early-access upgrades – no doubt helped by the campaign's rave reviews.

So despite selling far fewer copies on Steam, Xbox accounts for almost three-quarters of the revenue (roughly $26M of the $37M, versus about $11M on Steam). So "230K copies" undersells the paying audience. Including the 722K upgrades, nearly 950K people actually paid something for E-Day.

Looking at the playtime distribution in our platform, E-Day players on Steam are – relatively speaking – playing for longer:

54% of E-Day players on Xbox have played for five hours or less (versus 32% on Steam)

19% of Xbox players played for over 15 hours (versus 33% on Steam)

14% of Xbox players played for over 20 hours (22% on Steam)

The absolute number of people playing for over 15, 20, and 50 hours is, of course, bigger on Xbox, thanks to the sheer volume of folks who came in through Game Pass (upgraders included).

Should be noted that these are estimates and not concrete figures, but Jeff Grubb has mentioned in the past that Alinea are "not perfect but pretty good" and "usually closer than anyone else", so take that as you will.

A lot more data and analysis at the link:
https://alineaanalytics.substack.com/p/gears-of-war-e-day-sells-230k-copies

alinea analytics is estimating that gears e-day sold 62k units on xbox and 168k units on steam a week post launch. 1.7 million gamepass users, out of which 722k paid premium upgrade.
they were estimating that halo campaign evolved sold 500k units on xbox and 200k units on steam two weeks post launch. 2.1 million gamepass users, out of which 600k paid premium upgrade.

Yikes this isn't good.

Yowza. Maybe a PS5 version would have been a good idea after all.

That doesn't seem great.

Lots of people doing the upgrade thing, I'm one of them, been doing that a lot with first party games.

Really wished for better numbers tho, game deserves it.

I expected millions honestly, not sure why

They are just doing it to themselves. I wonder if a PS5 version will come along now?

How are they tracking premium uppgrades and correlating them to this release ? just the timing ?

If those numbers are not pure bullshit it's not looking too good but honestly this report is a bit hard to parse and numbers are all over the place
I know analytics are not very accurate and pretty much guesswork but they could present data better (Or maybe i'm just tired)

This is really sad. The game is excellent, it deserves way more.

The trend has already been established. None of this is a surprise.

I just cannot believe that to be accurate enough to even consider. Just imo.

I got the upgrade. Buying it in full later

Jesus...

"This is the right strategy!", not when no one is fucking buying your console it isn't!

E-Day seems genuinely great, definitely playing it one way or the other (leaning towards a 1 month GPU upgrade).

Since this was Asha's stupid ass decision, she better not touch The Coalition!

Microsoft really has gotten Xbox users used to not buying games, huh?

Man hope they don't consider killing Steam releases. Only reason I got it it's because it's on Steam, I have no interest in using Xbox pc app or getting another Xbox system moving forward.

So the gross revenue is for both games sold and the upgrade. That seems like a very rough start.

Even worse than I feared.

That can't possibly be right... But that would be wild.

Last edited: Sunday at 2:52 PM

Man hope they don't consider killing Steam releases. Only reason I got it it's because it's on Steam, I have no interest in using Xbox pc app or getting another Xbox system moving forward.

They can't afford to kill their Steam releases. Granted no one says Microsoft makes good choices.

I don't believe it it had to sold more than that did it

Microsoft really has gotten Xbox users used to not buying games, huh?

They spent a whole generation teaching them.

Pyro

God help us the mods are making weekend threads

Interesting wrinke with the Early Access stuff, but Game Pass still has just trained folks on Xbox to not buy games. But this is also Alinea so I'm taking this with a massive grain of salt.

They had another console's version running that people would've had to pay full price for, but decided to cancel it in order to win Twitter points, so...
Still, It's Alinea so I'd rather wait for better sources.

This is not good

And i dont see clockwork revolution doing any better.... This is not good

Continue your exclusives policy Microsoft

Now everyone sees how useless Steam CCU is

Yowza. Maybe a PS5 version would have been a good idea after all.

I mean they still got a PS5 version done but maybe that's not gonna release now I mean they had to know like it's gonna get more players than sales right because it's scored High so maybe coalitions safe

SCUMMbag

Prophet of Truth - Chicken Chaser

Rough numbers. Playing on Game Pass but I bought the upgrade. Those GP numbers seem low though.

Having tentpole games day and date on Game Pass makes no sense to me long-term. The new Spider Man movie is not going to be in theaters and on Disney Plus the same day, don't know why XBOX thought this strategy would work long term (or, if it was just to get subscribers, why it hasn't been abandoned when Game Pass subscriptions flattened off).

Those numbers are absolutely brutal if true and significantly worse than I was expecting. And I wasn't expecting much. With numbers that low, maybe a PS5 sku would have actually made sense. At this point though, I don't think they'll backtrack and release it on Sony's machine.

I'm never surprised when I hear these things about day one Game Pass releases.
I love Game Pass and it's the best possible service for me as a gamer living in a country with high inflation. But it's simple math that when you put your biggest games on the service from day one, it's going to affect their individual sales.

I don't care about the numbers and Alinea, lol, but I DO have a question. What's the point in buying early access for a game you rent? Like, seriously, I legit don't understand. If you unsubscribe, you lose access to the game right?

Continue your exclusives policy Microsoft

I mean it's not even an exclusive. It has the entire PC market along with Xbox consoles. I don't think a PS5 port would have made things dramatically better.

Even taking into account gamepass that's just catastrophically bad if true

The Coalition is a talented group of devs but does Gears have much appeal anymore in current times? It kind of seems like they are being wasted on this boomer IP.

No surprise. Their exclusivity plan makes no sense whatsoever, people cannot buy Xbox consoles even if they wanted to

Now everyone sees how useless Steam CCU is

How?

This is bleak. Seems like even reaching 1M sales by 2027 on both platforms is going to be a hard task at this point.

I don't see how they're gonna recover the development costs.

Last edited: Saturday at 1:05 PM

if this is true or accurate (big if) , the devs might want to start updating their CVs

Pyro

God help us the mods are making weekend threads

I wonder if a PS5 version is still in the cards. Maybe they try to spin it as just being a year of exclusivity like one of the tiers of Game Pass IIRC.

alinea analytics is estimating that gears e-day sold 62k units on xbox and 168k units on steam a week post launch. 1.7 million gamepass users, out of which 722k paid premium upgrade.
they were estimating that halo campaign evolved sold 500k units on xbox and 200k units on steam two weeks post launch. 2.1 million gamepass users, out of which 600k paid premium upgrade.

Interesting. Over 2 million gamepass players for Halo but more premium upgrade sales for Gears.

Maybe due to wanting to hop in multiplayer during early release?

Now everyone sees how useless Steam CCU is

Why, what were the CCU numbers?

People blame the lack of a PS5 version for those numbers, but I think these is more evident of a lack of power of the Gears of War brand.

Like I said in another thread, does E day even appeal to people outside the target audience of people who owned an Xbox in 2007 anymore?

Even taking into account gamepass that's just catastrophically bad if true
The Coalition is a talented group of devs but does Gears have much appeal anymore in current times? It kind of seems like they are being wasted on this boomer IP.

I always think the same. Especially post Gears 5.

However these numbers are worse than I feared, and MS is ruthless these days. They wont give them a second chance on a different IP even if they 100% deserve it. Hope the gamepass numbers impress.

People blame the lack of a PS5 version for those numbers, but I think these is more evident of a lack of power of the Gears of War brand.
Like I said in another thread, does E day even appeal to people outside the target audience of people who owned an Xbox in 2007 anymore?

you can't just let formerly big brands languish for years like MS has done with Halo and Gears and expect them to be as big as they ever were. Audiences aren't frozen in time while you get your shit together. They move on.

I don't think a PS5 version would help this